Iowa

Last night's Iowa caucuses officially launched election year. I wrote the following predictions in my journal yesterday morning:

Republican
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

And it didn't happen that way. It went Huckabee, Romney, McCain/Thompson. I thought for sure that Huckabee's gafs and apparent lack of knowledge of global politics would do him in. It didn't. My immediate reaction was to think "he'll never get elected!" But then I remembered thinking that with Reagan and more recently with Dubya. Then I felt the thud in my stomach and actually heard myself say "OY" out loud.

Democrat
I had 2 scenarios for the Democrats:
1. Clinton
2. Edwards
3. Obama

or

1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton

The second scenario was what came to pass. In both scenarios I knew that John Edwards would benefit as a second favorite choice from the 4 or so candidates that would not achieve 15%. It seems that he and Obama both benefited from that peculiar Iowan ritual.

As in the past, the press pays much attention to the winners in Iowa. Only 2 non-incumbents have actually been elected President after winning in Iowa: George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, both incumbents at the time, won Iowa and were re-elected.

So how important is Iowa? It is 5 days important. In five days, the Primary in New Hampshire takes place. Iowa will be a memory. As we move through January there will be 5 primaries, including FL on the 29th, leading up to Super Tues Feb 5th, when 20 states will have their primaries.

The excitement of being an American.